[SMM Analysis] 2,025: The Counterattack of NEVs?

Has the "One Superpower" Pattern Been Broken?

Data shows that in the first 11 months, BYD's cumulative sales reached 3.7573 million units, up 40% YoY, while SAIC's cumulative sales were 3.53 million units, down 19.48% YoY.

Has SAIC's sales been surpassed by BYD?!!!

BYD's overtaking sends an important signal, indicating that the long-standing dominance of joint-venture cars in the Chinese automotive market is undergoing a shift. For SAIC, this marks the first time it has lost the title of China's top car sales champion, a position it held for nearly 20 years.

Previously, there was a saying in the market that China's automotive industry had "one superpower and three strong players." While the "three strong players" were subject to debate, the "one superpower" was undoubtedly SAIC, highlighting its status in the automotive market.

However, facing the impact of the new energy wave, SAIC, the "super giant," has begun to show signs of fatigue.

Statistics show that SAIC's three major brands—SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, and SAIC-GM-Wuling—achieved sales of 1.215 million, 1.001 million, and 1.4031 million units respectively in 2023, totaling 3.619 million units. Notably, this figure was 6.1067 million units in 2018, meaning sales have declined by over 40% in five years.

Entering 2024, under the pressure of independent brands, SAIC's situation has become even more challenging. According to official data, SAIC Volkswagen's cumulative sales in the first 11 months were 1.018 million units, down 5.06% YoY; SAIC-GM's cumulative sales were 370,900 units, down 58.61% YoY; and SAIC-GM-Wuling's cumulative sales were 1.1605 million units, down 3.4% YoY.

Price War to Turn the Tide

Reports indicate that this year, SAIC launched a "fixed price" discount promotion, significantly reducing prices to boost sales. To drive a rebound in sales, over 100 car models from 13 brands under SAIC, including IM, Roewe, Feifan, MG, Maxus, Wuling, Baojun, Audi, and Volkswagen, offered promotional discounts in November. Combined with trade-in subsidies, the overall discount ranged from 50% to 80%.

However, the significant price cuts have also eroded SAIC's profits. According to financial reports, as of Q3 this year, SAIC achieved revenue of 430.6 billion yuan, down 17.74% YoY; net profit of 6.907 billion yuan, down 39.45% YoY; and non-recurring net profit of 1.05 billion yuan, down 88.92% YoY.

Fortunately, under various promotions, SAIC's sales rebounded in November. For example, SAIC-GM-Wuling sold 180,000 new cars in November, up 12.5% YoY; SAIC Volkswagen sold 132,500 new cars, up 10.41% YoY; while SAIC-GM's performance was slightly weaker, with 56,200 new cars sold.

IM Also Starts to "Scale Up"

Statistics show that in the first 11 months, IM achieved sales of 58,000 units, up 106.5% YoY. Currently, IM is under planning for market opportunities and technical routes in the mid-to-large MPV and SUV segments. In 2025, IM plans to launch four new products, including two pure electric and two range-extended models. It is expected that monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units will only be the beginning, and IM's sales in 2025 should perform well.

As an automotive giant, SAIC's lagging performance over the past two years is mainly due to its inability to adapt to the new "era rhythm." In the era of fuel vehicles, the industry norm was "minor updates every three years, major updates every seven years." However, in the NEV era, updates occur approximately every six months, with a much faster iteration speed. Previously, SAIC Volkswagen's General Manager Jianxu Jia publicly admitted: "Our current development process is still sequential, so many things are slow."

However, after going through the "adaptation period" of the past few years, SAIC has evidently begun to adapt to the rhythm of the NEV era. For instance, in October, IM's IM AD map-free city NOA was officially launched nationwide, making it the fourth company in the industry to achieve "nationwide availability" of map-free city NOA.

Judging from the current progress, after enduring a challenging 2024,SAIC is expected to stage a comeback in 2025.